DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 09Z MON 30/12 - 06Z TUE 31/12 2002
ISSUED: 30/12 07:51Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRITISH ISLES, WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRANCE, THE NORTHERN HALF OF IBERIA, PARTS OF THE WESTERN MEDITERRENEAN AND WESTERN ITALY

SYNOPSIS

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER IBERIA AND AN UPPER HIGH NORTH OF IRELAND. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST NEAR REGION OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN THE POLAR AIR MASS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. AS ATMOSPHERE IS APPROXIMATELY NEUTRAL FOR SATURATED ASCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE.

DISCUSSION

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